"The Big Dog" Mitch Vosburg

Ladies and gentlemen, we made it. Let the madness begin.

The Brackets are out. Games begin on Tuesday. It’s March Madness.

Which means I spent over four fours going through research on this year’s field of 68 teams for the men’s tournament. Like I’ve done for the last five NCAA tournaments, I let the numbers speak for themselves, setting up an analytical approach to my bracket.

For the last five years I’ve played with a formula that has helped finish inside the top five of nearly every pool I’ve entered in.

This year I once again adjusted my formula. I worked within three categories. Two are obvious, and the third is a changeup.

First, you have your offensive ranking. This includes points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, rebounding margin and turnovers committed.

Second, you have a defensive ranking. This includes points allowed, opponents field goal percentage, opponents 3-point percentage, turnovers forced, steals and blocks.

Each team is ranked 1-16 (or 17 in some cases) on where they rank within their region. The lower the number, the better. The numbers are then added and divided by the number of categories. For example, a team which ranks fifth in all five offensive categories and accumulates 25 points receives a final offensive score of five, since there are five offensive categories.

Once a team’s offensive and defensive categories are set we add in the third element new to 2025: game changing play opportunities. This is simply steals and blocks, two plays in basketball that can spark momentum sways and bring a home crowd to its feet in elation.

This total is added on to the team’s total points. It doesn’t drag down teams that can make these plays, but those who struggle to make game changing plays do get dragged down in my rankings, because let’s be real this is the time of year where the team that wins is the team that makes the biggest plays.

Is this formula foolproof? Absolutely not.

Sure, if Michigan makes one basket in the final five minutes against UCLA in the Elite Eight in 2021 I would’ve had the Final Four correct four years ago. Then there’s 2023 where this method had Miami (FL) as the worst team in its region. Miami made the Final Four that season.

This method is no guarantee to win any bracket pool you compete in. This method keeps me entertained, gives a different perspective into March Madness and, to an extent, knocks down a good chunk of the weeds in the field.

So, what does my research tell me in 2025? Let me tell you all about it.

South region

Big Dog’s No. 1 team: Auburn

Best offensive team: Yale

Best defensive team: San Diego State

Best odds to create game changing play opportunities: New Mexico

Analysis: Auburn draws the No. 1 overall seed. Michigan State draws the No. 2 seed in this region. The rest of the field, well, pick your poison.

I personally like Yale over Texas A&M, Lipscomb over a shorthanded Iowa State and UC San Diego over Michigan as first round upsets.

Are all three going to happen? No, but the south region is the most cut and dry path to the elite eight of any of the four.

Elite eight matchup: Auburn squeaks by Michigan State 74-71.

East region

Big Dog’s No. 1 team: Duke

Best offensive team: Duke

Best defensive team: VCU

Best odds to create game changing play opportunities: Mississippi State

Analysis: Yeah, this is Duke’s region to lose. The Blue Devils also rank second in defense.

But Duke’s opponents in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are going to be fascinating.

The No. 5 vs No. 12 matchup between Oregon and Liberty, played in Seattle, may be the best Round of 64 game we get on Friday night (please stay up to watch this one, you will not be disappointed). I also like Akron over Arizona, VCU over BYU and Baylor over Mississippi State.

But similar to the South region, we’re looking at the top two seeds in the Elite Eight. Oh, and Duke gets to the final four

Elite eight matchup: Duke beats Alabama 77-69.

West region

Big Dog’s No. 1 team: Maryland

Best offensive team: Florida

Best defensive team: St. John’s

Best odds to create game changing play opportunities: Grand Canyon

Analysis: Finally, an opportunity for chaos. Florida has been one of the best teams all year. St. John’s is an incredible story under head coach Rick Pitino. Then there’s Maryland, who may have the best starting five of any team in this region, which is pretty helpful in a team sport where five people at a time play.

In the Round of 64 I like Colorado State (shoutout to my Fort Collins family), Drake (not Josh) over Missouri and UNC Wilmington over Texas Tech.

In the Sweet 16 we’re treated to Florida vs Maryland, my top two teams in the region, and St. John’s vs Drake. The Terrapins stun the world, while the Red Storm conquer Drake, who are left wondering if they were liars or truthers this whole time.

Elite eight matchup: Because I adore chaos, St. John’s bests Maryland 64-62.

Midwest region

Big Dog’s No. 1 team: Houston

Best offensive team: Gonzaga

Best defensive team: Houston

Best odds to create game changing play opportunities: Troy

Analysis: So, Houston should run away with this region. Keyword here is “should.”

This is the deepest of the four regions. And to me, this is the region that is going to create headaches.

Trying to pick this winner in this region is like… imagine you’re in an intense action movie. You need to cut one of six wires to diffuse a bomb, which is set to detonate in 30 seconds. You have to choose between cutting either the red, blue, green, purple, orange or black wire. One diffuses the bomb. The other five set it off. Oh, and you’re colorblind.

Houston should handle SIU Edwardsville. After that, flip a coin with the likes of Gonzaga and potential matchups against Clemson, Kentucky and/or Tennessee on the road to the Final Four.

In the Round of 64 I like High Point over Purdue, because how many times have we watched the Boilermakers collapse in this exact spot?

Elite eight matchup: Houston survives the toughest gauntlet to the Elite Eight and conquers Kentucky 72-70

Final Four

A Final Four coaching matchup between Auburn’s Bruce Pearl and St. John’s Pitino will be must watch television. Give me the Red Storm to clamp down in the second half for a 61-54 win over the Tigers.

On the other end Cooper Flagg proves why he will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Blue Devils knock off Houston 72-56.

Then we get to the title game. Pitino against Duke. The surprising Red Storm against the juggernaut Blue Devils.

St. John’s makes it a fight, but Duke wins 64-60.