WASHINGTON — On Election Day on Nov. 5, I can say with some certainty: The House of Representatives will go from a Republican to a Democratic majority.

A blue House matters, because the speaker’s gavel will belong to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York on the early January day the electoral count is certified by the House and Senate.

Last time, as you remember, there was a riot, a siege, a mob attack on the Capitol. Call it what you will.

American democracy faces its first major stress test since Jan. 6. The peaceful transfer of power is in peril — again. If former President Donald Trump loses, he predicts a “bloodbath.”

We know Trump means every word. Lately, it’s gobsmacking to hear him insult Vice President Kamala Harris’ intelligence, given she defeated him handily in a debate.

Who does Trump think he’s talking to in red-faced rants and raves at rallies? His side of the political divide: us versus them. Tragically, it’s a tribal election this time. Democracy and personal freedom for women depends upon a Harris victory.

I’ll get to my presidential and Senate predictions in a moment. There is so much on the line here, in the most consequential election since Abraham Lincoln took office in 1861. Then the Civil War broke out.

History is everything they never told you in class. Such as: In the history of this nation, never has one candidate thrown so much mud (“mentally disabled”) in ugly insults during a presidential contest. Never.

Trump’s virulence spreads everywhere he goes. He makes me less than “proud to be an American,” as his theme song goes. Traveling, I found myself apologizing for the un-American president when he was in office.

Harris is holding her fire with dignity, but I think we know Trump is treating a woman of color with special contempt. Unfortunately, his loaded remarks, goading crowds, are often aired on cable, online and network screens, with little to no comment as he sinks lower into the pit.

The map to the White House goes through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania again, as it did in 2016 and 2020. Harris should win Pennsylvania with a little help from Gov. Josh Shapiro.

But Michigan will be harder because of its large Arab American communities. They are up in arms about Israel waging war in Gaza, killing 40,000 civilians, bombing Lebanon and conducting raids in the West Bank. Israel did not even tell its best friend, the United States, about its latest military operations.

I’d put Wisconsin in Harris’ column.

In all three must-win states for her, a Senate seat is also on the ballot, leaning Democratic. Every bit of political alchemy in this tug-of-war election helps one or the other candidate.

Harris has a fighting chance in North Carolina, and there may be some other surprises in store. Yet her energy and time are probably best invested in the cities and college towns of the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania: Milwaukee, Madison, Detroit, Ann Arbor, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Harris is strong on the stump, and I’ll declare her the winner over Trump.

The good news for Senate Democrats: They’re getting rid of their troublesome twosome, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. They prevented voting rights from going forward on the floor, pledging allegiance to the filibuster before bowing out of the 2024 races.

Much has to fall into place for Democrats to hold the Senate. Popular incumbent Sherrod Brown has to win in Republican-red Ohio; same with working farmer Bob Tester in Montana.

“(Bob Tester) knows how to win in (Montana),” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Democratic Senate reelection campaign chair, said.

Democrats hope for a “pickup” in Texas or Florida, where Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are vulnerable. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker, is challenging Cruz, with a funding boost from the party.

Now the blue Senate is 51- 49. It could slip to 50-50 in a heartbeat, or Republicans could overtake Democrats and make it 51-49 in their favor.

Whatever happens, the useless House Republicans deserve the drubbing voters will dish out: “A mix of the Do Nothings and the Know Nothings” was heard in the halls as Congress left town.

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The author may be reached at JamieStiehm.com. To find out more about Jamie Stiehm and other Creators Syndicate columnists and cartoonists, please visit creators.com.