Courtesy photo An angler poses with his catch taken in the waters of the Bays de Noc.

ESCANABA — Unusual weather — a mild winter marked by sporadic ice coverage followed by an early spring — will almost undoubtedly have an effect on walleye populations in the Bays de Noc. Nature is resilient in the face of some variability, but experts have raised concern about long-term effects if extreme seasons repeat. In the short term, seasoned anglers are likely to adjust their practices based on observed conditions.

Spawning is linked to thawing on freshwater bodies. Consistent weather patterns in the past have made it so that phytoplankton — plant-like marine microorganisms at the base of the food chain — bloom as the ice melts, roughly around the time when walleye hatch. Phytoplankton are eaten by zooplankton, which in turn are the prey of walleye fry. But if fish aren’t adapting as fast as weather and algae, they may miss their window for that food source.

“There’s variability every year, and especially around spawning time,” said Fisheries Biologist Darren Kramer, who works out of the Escanaba DNR Office. In the past, he pointed out, walleye spawning has been as late as early May. “Some variability is kind of built into the natural system… and walleyes are perfectly adapted to that and the rest of the environment. It’s when you get, you know, the extreme variability (that) there can be more and more problems.”

Kramer said that he doesn’t expect to see aggressive long-term changes, but noted that the last 10 years have shown more variability than in decades prior, and that “this year is kind of an extreme compared to what we witnessed in the past.”

Early springs bring early spawns, which may be decoupled from plankton blooms.

“Walleyes are most successful when you have an ice-off, and they spawn, and there’s kind of this slow, steady spring spring warm-up … that couples with those food recources being available when the walleye — the young fish fry — are looking for food,” Kramer explained.

At this point, of course, projections are speculative, but educated.

Paul “Blade” Bloedorn of Blade’s Bait and Tackle in Kipling had an optimistic hypothesis developed around the fact that the winter was mild with less ice coverage — and therefore less ice fishing — than usual.

“Because of the unusually warm temperatures and less people out here fishing this entire season, that means less pressure, less fish caught, and better for the fishery in general,” Bloedorn said. “It should be really prime for not only this spring, summer, but next season and seasons to come.”

An early spawn also means that fish will have more time to travel by the time walleye season opener rolls around in May. Instead of being concentrated at the mouths of the rivers and the head of the bays, they’re likely to be spread out seeking food in deeper waters by then.

“When you get these early spawns, like what we’re gonna see this year — or you know, earlier April, which can be normal — walleyes tend to be away from those spawning locations, you know, out into deeper areas offshore, harder for anglers to find them and target. So it can have an effect on the success of walleye fishermen, especially earlier in the season,” said Kramer.

Angler Jerry Plourde said that he recognizes that an early spawn is likely to affect this year’s migration, but doesn’t believe the weather will affect the population overall.

“It will definitely change where fish are located, but it’s different every year,” Plourde said.