ESCANABA — The onset of winter is here, with Saturday marking the solstice. There are mixed weather predictions for the season ahead.

The entire Great Lakes region is expecting a season of above-average snowfall, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Whether it’ll be colder or warmer than usual is a tossup, NOAA states.

Old Farmer’s Almanac, however, predicted December to be warmer than average and January 2025 to be “frigid.” The Almanac’s long-range weather report also expects snowfall in the Upper Midwest to be “below normal” this season. The most snow, it says, will be seen in late December, mid- and late January, early February, and mid-March.

The winter solstice arrives at 4:21 a.m. EST on Dec. 21. Many call it the first day of winter, but because the solstice marks the point at which the Earth is at its most extreme tilt, it also means that days are going to get longer from this point forward. The Northern Hemisphere is on its way out of the darkness.

There are two different ways of looking at when the seasons fall — meteorologically and astronomically. Astronomical winter starts on the solstice (the 21st), but meteorological winter began on Dec. 1. Three weeks in, a couple flurries have struck, but there’s a long way to go reach the “above average precipitation” that the National Weather Service (NWS), a division of NOAA, is predicting.

Forecasters say that a good and hearty winter lies ahead for the Upper Peninsula — for those who like snow and consider last winter “bad,” anyway. Based on info gathered by NWS cooperative observers, Escanaba had a total of 24 inches of snow during the 2023 to 2024 season, the least in the Upper Peninsula and the lowest in over 20 years. Better skiing and snowshoeing weather is expected for the 2024 to 2025 season.

Escanaba and Menominee, locals know, see far less snow than other places in the U.P. Between 1991 and 2020, the average snowfall for the seat of Delta County was 47 inches, while Iron Mountain’s average was 61, Marquette’s 102, Munising’s 161 and Sault Ste. Marie’s 120. Calumet and ­Houghton could call those dustings.

Sometimes, La Nina weather patterns emerge and can cause wetter than average conditions for the Great Lakes. As of mid-December, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipated about a 60% chance of “an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions,” which are “less likely to result in conventional winter impacts.”

As far as temperatures, at this point in time, there’s equal chances of above average and below average temps for the region, report NWS forecasters.

During some recent past winters, including in January 2014 and January 2019, extreme weather events were caused by stratospheric warming that led to the breakdown and displacement of the polar vortex, the area of cold air and low pressure usually contained by a cycle of winds around the North Pole during winter. During sudden warmings of the stratosphere, the polar vortex is disrupted and weakens, which can affect the troposphere (the lower level, where our weather happens) by sending cold air and the polar jet stream south into the United States. This year, the polar vortex was slow to form and was elongated at first but has not shown signs of yielding strength.